Half a step before the disaster…
Apparently, today or tomorrow the Belarusian army may enter the war against Ukraine. Without its participation, the Russians are unable to defeat Kyiv. Most likely, it will be 4-5 thousand of the most trained troops. In addition to the military reason, there will be a political rationale – this will be done with a view to give the Belarusians the “honorary right” to conquer the capital of Ukraine and “raise the flag over the lair of nationalists” – thus to stain the whole Belarusian nation with the blood of the Ukrainians. This is such a special, cynical, exquisite disgrace for Belarusians.
Belarus will not declare war against Ukraine but consider it to be a special operation, like Russia. So, our troops will not suffer any losses. Parents of the Belarusian soldiers need to be prepared for the fact that none of them will receive a “killed in battle” notice although hundreds and thousands may be killed.
Another point. After the entry of our troops into Ukraine, it is likely that Ukraine will start shelling our border towns – Gomel, Mozyr, Pinsk and Brest. Zhytomyr and Chernihiv were shelled from our territory as well. Of course, the targets will not be civilian, but military and strategic facilities, such as Mozyr oil refinery and others. However, there is no guarantee that civilians, adults and children will not fall victim to missiles, bombs and shells. And we will not have a right to accuse the Ukrainians of this – they did not attack us, it is us who attacked them.
One more thing. It is far from certain that with the help of Belarusian troops Russia will be able to conquer Kyiv. However, if it does, it doesn’t make any difference for the outcome of the war. The Ukrainians will not surrender, and Kyiv will become the hell for the invaders, including the Belarusians.
If the Ukrainians succeed in defending Kyiv, Kharkiv and other major cities, which is likely to be the case, then we need to be prepared for the fact that the Russian leadership will use nuclear weapons. It’s hard to talk about it, but we have to face the truth, especially the Ukrainians and the Belarusians – the nations that survived Chernobyl. Maybe we are destined to live through another nuclear catastrophe.
We will not make any further predictions not because the story ends there. On the contrary, because its most tragic page will be turned over. And all those people who survive, and it will be the majority, will need to prepare for life after the disaster, catharsis. First of all, everyone will have to answer the inevitable, harsh question: How did we end up like this? And what should we do to never let it happen again?..