What will happen to the economy of Belarus in 2022?
In 2022, the following factors will strongly influence the economy of Belarus:
– Wide range of direct export sanctions (EU)
– New financial sanctions (EU, USA)
– Destruction of relations with Ukraine
– Transport and logistics barriers
– Reputational and image failures for business
– Rapid growth of negative expectations
According to BEROC experts, this could lead to a contraction of Belarusian exports by 40% or more. GDP may fall by almost 20% in 2022
In their simulation (not forecast!) scenario, experts also indicate that unemployment this year could rise to 8% of the economically active population. USD/BYN rate – up to 6.3.
More information is available in the published work “Belarusian Economy in the New Conditions: What’s Happening and What to Expect”.