What will happen to the economy of Belarus in 2022?

In 2022, the following factors will strongly influence the economy of Belarus:

– Wide range of direct export sanctions (EU)

– New financial sanctions (EU, USA)

– Destruction of relations with Ukraine

– Transport and logistics barriers

– Reputational and image failures for business

– Rapid growth of negative expectations

According to BEROC experts, this could lead to a contraction of Belarusian exports by 40% or more. GDP may fall by almost 20% in 2022

In their simulation (not forecast!) scenario, experts also indicate that unemployment this year could rise to 8% of the economically active population. USD/BYN rate – up to 6.3.

More information is available in the published work “Belarusian Economy in the New Conditions: What’s Happening and What to Expect”.